This year was a disaster for Buehler until, suddenly, it wasn’t. He came up huge in his last three playoff outings for the Dodgers, pitching 10 scoreless innings and ultimately throwing the pitch that sealed the deal on their title.
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It was a taste of the good old days for the two-time Tommy John survivor, and his earning power should benefit accordingly. It’s even possible to imagine him scoring a multi-year deal from a team in need of a high-upside starter.
Signs with Chicago Cubs for 3 years, $30 million
2024 Stats: 32 G, 31 GS, 160.0 IP, 159 H (23 HR), 159 K, 41 BB, 4.28 ERA
Heaney had an up-and-down debut season for the Texas Rangers in 2023, but it culminated in him earning a W in Game 4 of the World Series. He built on that in 2024, providing valuable innings in a rotation hit hard by injuries.
Any guy who can go five innings per start while punching out a batter per inning is worth a look. And if a team can get Heaney to replace his iffy slider (-13 value for 2023-24) with something better, there could be real upside here.
Signs with Texas Rangers for 2 years, $22 million
2024 Stats: 42 G, 16 GS, 142.1 IP, 128 H (13 HR), 116 K, 18 BB, 3.10 ERA
Martinez is an interesting case. He isn’t a “starter” in a classic sense, and he’ll be tied to draft-pick compensation if he rejects a $21.05 million qualifying offer from the Cincinnati Reds.
He’s a solid upside play, though. He’s a control artist who stifles exit velocity (94th percentile in 2024), and he had a 2.18 ERA away from Great American Ball Park this season. If anything, the Reds should be hoping he accepts the QO.
Accepts 1-year, $21.05 million offer from Cincinnati Reds
2024 Stats: 30 G, 30 GS, 150.2 IP, 140 H (24 HR), 148 K, 66 BB, 4.84 ERA
Montas had a rough time as a New York Yankee, falling flat after a 2022 trade and then missing almost all of 2023 after shoulder surgery. This year wasn’t quite a return to form.
He did, however, fan 29 percent of the batters he faced after going from Cincinnati to Milwaukee. He gained 1.1 mph on his fastball, though he also featured his sinker and cutter more than his four-seamer. A team should want to run with those improvements.
Signs with Washington Nationals for 2 years, $20 million
2024 Stats: 27 G, 26 GS, 145.2 IP, 128 H (28 HR), 172 K, 36 BB, 4.14 ERA
Pivetta is another interesting case because of the qualifying offer, of which he was perhaps the most surprising recipient. At first glance, $21.05 million is a lot of money to risk on a guy with a career ERA+ of 92.
Stuff-wise, however, Pivetta is as good as any other pitcher in baseball. His problem is the long ball, as he’s given up 1.5 home runs per nine innings for his career. Leaving Boston could solve that, but one could understand if he’d rather not risk it.
Accepts 1-year, $21.05 million offer from Boston Red Sox
